We can safely say we have entered “Chaos Season” in the college football landscape.

Take that how you want to.

Within the top 25, numbers 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 13, 16, and 18 all lost. #12 won by ten points, #11 won by three, #15 by eight, #24 by ten and #25 by three. All close games.

We were on the verge of absolute devastation for over half of the top 25.

And yet, there, once again, amid all of it, is little ole’ Boise State, sitting at #21 after rising two spots in the AP poll after a bye week. (BSU is #22 in the Coaches Poll after rising two spots there as well.)

And you know what?

Boise State leaves behind a bye week that was, for some, perfect timing. The “getting guys healthy” thing is always important, and diving into some nuances of schematics and technique were probably on top of mind for some, less important for others. Regardless, Boise State comes into week eight ready to take on a Washington State Cougar team that has had a tumultuous first half of the season.

On paper, this should take shape as a huge Bronco victory. We are at the point of the season where stats begin to tell a big-time story. When it’s only a small sample, it’s hard to see generalities within statistical categories. And even when we’re six games in, (seven for WSU), sometimes the stats can be misleading as to the most recent page in the book. However, what I’m seeing here doesn’t have me on the edge about this game. More, it’s the “rivalry” between the two teams and a new quarterback that has me keeping an eye on this as a “trap game” (we’ve been here this year already, ugh).

Let’s look at the current state of both teams beyond their records.

And maybe this will come back to bite me, but I’m still not totally convinced. In looking at how those points were scored, I feel like this could easily have been a 41-16 final. 

WSU’s final two scores of the game came with 9:03 and 1:37 left in the 4th quarter, nearly garbage time. The game was well in hand.  The first of those scores came on a seven play, 75-yard drive, which included a 3rd-and-10 conversion by freshman QB Owen Eshelman when he ran for 41 yards.  The second touchdown came on a 15-play, 76-yard drive that saw three 3rd-down conversions and a 4th-down conversion where Eshelman once again did it with his legs, running 20 yards for the touchdown.

Two drives, both much improved from the previous 6 and ¾ games. I will reserve judgement on the improvement piece until it happens for more than a quarter, and not when the other team is up by 25 points.

In a presser with coach Moore, Kirby specifically pointed to Eshelman’s decision making. While mistakes were made, a freshman QB that is decisive and knows what he wants in any given play is a QB that you must take seriously. And we all know the chatter surrounding our defense. Once again, we’re in that head space of, “Um, can this team’s passing game torch our defense for another five to ten 30+ yard plays?”

Okay, that’s about the extent of my worries. (Even as I type this, I feel like the karmic side of things will haunt me forever if BSU loses this game…but I’m going to press on.)

On rushing offense, Boise State is at 9th to WSU’s 110th.  In passing, while BSU’s yards don’t stand out (86th), the Cougs come in at a tie for 119th. Where the lop-sided nature of the passing game stands out big time (and more important, IMO), is passing efficiency.

Boise State, even with the lack of yards, is 27th in the nation, while Wazzu is 131st.   In fact, the Cougs are dead last in yards per completion (138th), at just 8.6 YPC.  Elsewhere, Boise State has been dominant on 3rd and 4th downs (Money Downs) this year. On 3rd down conversion percentage, the Broncos sit 16th at 50%, while even with the 7-for-10 second half from Wazzu last week, they are 134th in the nation (29%). For what it’s worth, I’ll note that WSU went 0 for 7 on 3rd-down-conversions in the first half against the Beavers.

And with that worry in place, let’s look at The Three Big Things.

The Three Big Things

1. No Hope, No Hope, NO HOPE
Context is crucial for any game, and this one is no different. Boise State has never beaten WSU in Pullman (0-3). Granted, two of those games happened well before any of the athletes playing in this game were born. But the ’17 game still stings. A triple OT, three-point L still haunts us, Bronco Fam. We do know what happened the last time these two teams squared off, a 45-24 Asthon-Jeanty-led trouncing on the Blue. But I doubt any single player cares about any of that history. The Cougs would LOVE to be the team to shut down the CFP talk and, once again, tell everyone how “Boise Junior College” just can’t hang with them.

I’m still hoping for that game where a defense over-focuses on that run game, and with that elite protection, gives Maddux the time and space to throw three of four bombs. This season, the Broncos have just three completions of 40 or more yards with none of those coming in the same game. Here’s to hoping we can get two or three of those in a single contest and watching Maddog put up the 300+ we’re all hoping for at least once. Is it needed? Nah, not really. And Maddux is putting on an absolute clinic of clean, smart, decisive QB play this year. And 90% of Bronco Nation is giving him his flowers. But mannn I’d love to see that game where the nation goes “Whoa, 300 yards and three TD’s? Nice!’