The numbers in sports and analytics are fascinating. My world as an educator has largely centered around mathematics, and I have done a lot of convincing students over the years that numbers tell a story. Seldom in life do we isolate numbers simply to operatewith them.

And the numbers-tell-a-story thing is, perhaps, clearer in the sports world than anywhere else.

But numbers can be spun. The analysis can be twisted in a way to make some things sound great, some things sound terrible.

And last Saturday, among all the numbers we could analyze, one number mattered more than anything.

One.

All that separated BSU from its second loss of the year and a continued Pac 12 ‘ship and CFP push was one single point.

Boise State needed every point it could get against a never-say-die Texas State Bobcats team, ultimately walking out of Albertson’s Stadium with a 46-45 victory. If you’re anything like me, you’re still catching your breath from all of it.

The numbers, however, do not point to how close Saturday’s Halloween game was.

29 to 16 first downs in favor of BSU. 56% to 40% in 3rd down efficiency, in favor of BSU. Fourth down efficiency, total yards (passing and rushing), penalties, time of possession, ALL in favor of BSU. How did they only win by one?

Well, here’s some of the spooky numbers.

36 straight points for Texas State.

A 25-point lead squandered.

21 total yards in the third quarter for Boise State.

First half? Four possessions, four touchdowns.

Second half? The first six possessions, six fails. Punt, Fumble, Punt, Punt, Punt, Interception.

We haven’t seen a six-possession-progression like that from a BSU team in a long time (not that I can remember, and I’m choosing to ignore the San Diego State game from last year).

Then, three insanely inspiring drives with Max Cutforth leading the way that saved the day. Rasean Jones and Nitro Wright (and a huge Cam Bates 11-yard reception) were right there with Max in the “saved the day” category.

And when it was all said and done, a second Jaden Mickey pass-deflection to finish it off.

46 to 45, one point victory.

And the 1-0 mentality continues.

Unbelievable Bronco Fam.

We’ll remember that one for a long time. On such a special night with Kellen Moore and his family on hand to witness it all – definitely, an all-timer.

And as fun as it was to celebrate the GOAT and a nail-biting win, it’s already time to move on to what’s next.

Boise State will head to Fort Collins this weekend to face a CSU Rams team that is…well…going through some interesting times, to say the least.

Colorado State enters this game with a 3-5 record, with wins against Wyoming, Southern Utah, and San Diego State. In all three wins, the team leaned heavily on their offense to do the bulk of the work, scoring 35, 58 and 56 (respectively).

The defense, on the other hand, is going through a similar situation to what the Washington State team went through on offense. A mid-season change of leadership and turmoil surrounding the program, although the CSU deal is far more dramatic and tumultuous than the Cougs’ situation.

On October 3rd, in a game against Oregon State, head coach Jim Mora relieved now former Defensive Coordinator Tyson Summers of play-calling duties mid-game. Summer then chose to leave the field rather than stick around. The post-game press conference was fascinating.

And it hasn’t gone well since. In subsequent games, the Rams have given up 66 points to Texas State, 49 points to San Diego State (who sits 85th in scoring offense at only 26.4 points per game), and 31 points to Utah State (who sits 134th in scoring offenseat only 16.9 points per game).

Needless to say, the Rams defense is in shambles. And, in a press conference after Saturday’s loss to Utah State, Mora let it be known that he is not happy, saying they were all “awful”, including himself.

He even pointed out that the players in that locker room are making money, and with the money comes an obligation to do their job. The entire presser is worth the listen.

Simply put, Mora is LIVID.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see players dismissed or leave this week or next after hearing his presser. In Mora’s words, “The hammer is coming down.”

When asked if players wouldn’t be there, he emphatically (with certain choice words), confirmed “Absolutely, and they won’t be here. There’s no chance they’ll be here. ZERO chance. There’s already a list, and the list is getting long. I’m not gonna put up with this. I know how to turn programs around. I’ve done it four times. You’ve got to be willing to make really hard decisions, as a program and as a university.”

When then asked how he’s going to change it, his response? “I’m going to be an a******. If they don’t like it, there’s a door, and they can walk their a** right out.”

Wow. The Colorado State football program is an absolute mess right now.

But.

(Oh yeah, a major BUT as we leave the Texas State game behind and move onto the Rams).

It is clear there are some major issues on the defensive side for Boise State as well. We knew it going into the game against Texas State.

And the one area that Colorado State currently has success in is the one area that could spell worst-case scenario for a struggling BSU defense.

CSU’s passing game.

The Rams’ passing offense currently sits 26th in the nation. The rushing offense is 59th.  CSU is 4th in sacks allowed per game, 42nd in passing efficiency, 31st in total offense and 25th in scoring offense.

All those numbers tell me…ugh, let’s buckle up for a potentially long evening again Bronco Fam.

Colorado State’s O-Line is led by senior OT Quinton Harris, a 6’8”, 305 pound beast of a blocker. He, along with the entire unit, gives the Rams the ability to do some unique things on offense. The Rams are known (this season) for spreading the ball out. There isn’t a single player defenses can solely focus on. Rather, OC Pryce Tracy(former pass game coordinator) keeps five or more targets as options all the time. Defenses have had a tough time stopping this offense. While QB Hauss Henjy struggled against the Aggies last week, he’s been elite in other games (333 yards and three touchdowns against the Aztecs, 214 yards and five touchdowns against Wyoming, and 325 yards and four touchdowns against Southern Utah). Henjy did suffer a hamstring injury against BYU, after he had only thrown 10 attempts, so it’s kind of a bummer to not see what he could have done against an elite team like that.

When you couple a QB that can go OFF at any time with a running back duo of Durrell Robinson (6’0, 207 pounds) and Mel Brown who averages 8.7 yards per carry, that can spell trouble for the defense.

Typically, you’d see teams commit more players to the box to stop this running attack. And that is where I have some major worries for this coming game. If BSU is forced into bringing guys into the box, leaving safeties or corners in one-on-one situations, then Henjy tries to go to work. The one hopeful thing here is that our D-Line and linebackers have been fantastic against the run game this year, where Boise State sits 19th overall in rushing defense.

It’d be nice to think BSU will be able to get some major pressure on Henjy, but that too hasn’t been our strongest suit this year, and where the Rams only allow 0.62 sacks per game (4th in the nation), we may be depending heavily on our D-Line and linebackers to stop any sort of running attack so we can keep numbers in our secondary. The defensive backs MUST start to figure some things out, or teams will continue with the explosive plays.

So, what can BSU do to go into Fort Collins and come away with the win? Let’s look at three big things.

Last week’s Three Big Things started with limiting explosives, and I’m going there again. Texas State put up five explosive plays against the Broncos: 27, 67,  35,  44, and 72 yards, four of which went for touchdowns. This week, we are up against a passing offense that is 10 spots better in passing offense than Texas State. What is the key issue for our secondary, or is it multiple things? I don’t have an answer at this point, but we can all see it has GOT to get better if there’s any hope for the Pac 12 ‘Ship or a CFP berth. BSU captured lightning in a bottle on The Blue last Saturday. Doing it twice in a season? Highly doubtful. The defense must LIMIT explosives. That doesn’t mean stop the explosives from ever happening – that’s not football, we all know that. But the constant four, five, six, seven per game? I’m really hoping that stops this weekend against a Rams team with a solid offense.

As of this writing (Wednesday afternoon), it hasn’t been announced if Maddog will be able to go on Saturday, but he wasn’t present at practice on Tuesday. All signs point to Max Cutforth getting the start. If that’s the case, it is imperative that he gets the time he needs to operate. We saw what he’s capable of in glimpses last season, and last Saturday, he showed an elite level ability with some absolute dimes in the last seven minutes. I’m not sure we even need that elite level to shine through, but what simply cannot happen is getting him into high pressure, high-stakes money downs where he HAS to go make the play. Can he do it? Obviously. Is it WAY better if we don’t put him in that position? 100%. And facing a defense that ranks 129th in passing yards allowed, 137th in 3rd-down-conversion-defense, and 138th (DEAD LAST) in total defense and scoring defense…well, if there’s any game to take advantage with a backup QB going, this is the one.

But, with that said…

I think we all realized on Saturday just how valuable Sire Gaines is. Not that we didn’t know it before. We’ve known for two seasons now that we have a crazy good backfield duo. But to watch it unfold in front of our eyes? Let’s REALLY hope Sire is back this weekend. The two of them together create such a dynamic nature to our running back core that other teams are forced into really difficult scheme situations to stop it.

And if Sire can’t go? I still think Dylan gets back into the 100+ yard groove (and maybe even closer to 200+ yard groove). Not only is CSU near the absolute bottom in passing defense, they are literally at the bottom in rushing defense. 138th out of 138 teams, allowing 261.1 rushing yards per game. Dylan, Sire (hopefully) and the O-Line should be salivating over this opportunity. How about we turn the explosives around and get both of these guys one, two, maybe three 50+ yard rushes this Saturday? It wouldn’t shock me one bit to see two 100+ yard rushers after this contest (that is, if Sire is healthy and a go). If not? Here’s a chance for Juelz Goff and Harry Stewart to put up some yards.

If the run game can help open the passing game, I see the Broncos putting up 40 or more points this Saturday.

That’s all this down-trodden CSU team needs is a couple of quick turnovers. This is a game that is ripe for foot-on-throat syndrome. BSU’s offense needs to take care of the ball. Just like against Texas State, we cannot give CSU more opportunities than what they’ll already get if we get scores on the board. I’m really hoping for that 30-point blowout win we all long for, but honestly, with Maddog out and a banged up team in various places, a 10 to 14 point dub may be more likely. This happens if we keep the ballin our hands on offensive possessions.

Last week, our Three Big Things were to limit explosives, limit Bobcat possessions, and get into Texas State’s backfield. All three things did NOT go well, and we see what happened. This week, the Broncos have got to get some of this stuff figured out. While the Rams are going through some turbulent times, Mora is fed up and is probably looking for guys who want starting positions. That can be extremely motivating to kids looking for more playing time and who may see another 10 to 30 thousand in NIL money waiting for them if they get that starting spot. I PRAY the Broncos don’t mess around and find out this weekend against a CSU team that would LOVE a repeat of what they did to us the last time we were in Fort Collins.

The spread coming into this game this weekend currently sits at 17.5 points. I don’t want to go as far as saying I see the Broncos covering that “easily”. However, I think the Broncos win by 10 to 15, but don’t be surprised Bronco Fam if we’re biting our nails, once again, as we get late into this game.

One more breakdown for you. I’m going to give you a list of scoring by quarter with averages.

Take from that what you want, but it’s clear the 3rd quarter is not working. And we saw that on full display last Saturday against Texas State. Can the Broncos show a very high ability CSU Rams team that the defense will NOT allow itself to be torn apart likethey were in the 3rd and 4th quarters of the Texas State game?

I think we do. I lean positively on this. If I had to put money down, I’d say our 3rd quarter looks WAY better this weekend.

Bronco Fam, I told several friends and fans that if we can have a 2nd half like the one we had against Texas State – defense getting torched, offense largely unable to move the ball, our main man Maddog going down, several other dudes injured…and we still come back to win?

This team is, dare I say, GOOD this year. I have ‘06/’10/’14 vibes sneaking up.

I know, I know, there’s a LOT of season left, and I’m trying to temper excitement and all the emotions at the moment.

But…

Let’s let ourselves imagine the possibilities, for just a second, of if/when this team starts clicking on ALL cylinders over the span of a couple of games. Let’s remember that we’ve been here before, several times, and the history this program teaches us.

That over and over again, this team is counted out, is spoken negatively about, is questioned and doubted by national media.

It’s where we LOVE to live.

CFP rankings at #25? Feeling disrespected?

Good.

I love it when our Bronco teams have felt that. I love it when the outside noise looks down on BSU football. It means when those cylinders start clicking, whichever team is in the way had better watch out.

If you’re traveling to Fort Collins, take The Blue mentality with you Bronco Fam! Be loud, be vocal, be kind and let ‘em know we are STILL Bronco Nation, and no matter what, all conference championships come through Boise State.

Let’s go Broncos, go get that W at CSU and come back home with the 1-0 mentality we all need to continue living by!

23 Oregon (5-3) @ 12 Ohio State (6-2)

6 Kentucky (7-1) @ 13 Tennessee (6-2)

7 Texas (6-2) @ 18 Missouri (6-2)

5 Alabama (6-2) @ 14 LSU (6-2)

9 BYU (7-1) @ 3 Utah (8-0)

1 Miami  (8-0) @ 11 Notre Dame (7-1)

2 Georgia (7-1) @ 10 Ole Miss (6-2)

8 UCLA (8-0) @ Minnesota (5-3)

19 Iowa (6-2) @ Northwestern (6-2)

Texas A&M (4-4) @ 21 South Carolina (5-3)

Cincinnati (5-3) @ 17 Houston (6-2)

TCU (4-4) @ 22 Arizona (6-2)

UTSA (7-1) @ Florida Atlantic (5-3)

New Mexico (7-1) @ Nevada (3-5)

Texas State @ Oregon State