Boise State can put the Pullman curse to rest. On Saturday, the Broncos met up with the Cougars of Washington State in Pullman and came out with their first W against WSU at their house, 31-10. While the final score may not indicate the nerves that many of us were feeling on Saturday, it does show that Boise State, for now, is able to wear down teams and do what they do best – run the ball when it counts.

After three quarters of some Bronco fans beginning to nail-bite, the O-Line, Rasean Jones, Matt Wagner and Dylan Riley said, “Okay, that’s enough”. With 11 minutes to go in the 4th quarter, after a huge interception by Boen Phelps, the Jet got out the hammer and nails with a 33-yard touchdown run. On their next possession, with just over 6 minutes to go, Riley used said hammer and nails and drove them into WSU’s coffin, putting the Broncos up 31-10 with a 72-yard TD run, allowing Bronco Nation to take a much-needed deep breath.

The win moves Boise State to 6-1 on the year and drops the Cougs to 1-7.

We’ll take a 21-point victory any time against anybody. However…sheesh. (I will put one small caveat to the game not being an absolute, convincing blowout. Anytime a team has a coach on staff who coached the opposing team last season, regardless of that coach’sposition, I do wonder if it is worth some amount of points being kept off the board at the end.)

I digress.

Boise State comes home for a very welcomed game on the Blue this coming Saturday, October 31st, against a head-scratching Texas State team. This will not be a 1-7 Washington State matchup at all. The Bobcats give me more of a Memphis vibe, but with far more explosive ability and some games where scoring points were like taking candy from a baby.

To start the season, TXST only managed seven points against then #5 Texas. They followed it up with a 26-point outing that resulted in a loss to UTSA, a team (at least for now) that finds themselves on the outskirts of a CFP bid. They went on an offensive tear the next two games, scoring 49 against North Texas, then 63 against University of Incarnate Word (calm down, I know). In game five, they scored 29 in a loss to San Diego State, then put up 716 yards of offense and 66 points against Colorado State (again…I hear you, I promise.)

They followed that up with only 20 points and a narrow three-point victory against the Aggies of Utah State.

Um, what?

So…what do we know? Well, the Bobcats can score a TON of points against lesser and/or struggling teams/defenses, and they can struggle to score points against lesser and/or struggling teams/defenses.

And what happens on Halloween inside Albertson’s stadium? Let’s look at the statistical (and maybe a little spooky) breakdown.

Texas State currently sits at 5th in the nation in overall offense at 517.7 yards per game, and 18th in scoring offense at 37.1 points per game.

But there may be some nuance to those yards and points.

49 points against North Texas, who sits 96th in total defense and 116th in scoring defense.

63 points against Incarnate Word who sits at 43rd in the FCS ranks in total defense.

66 points against Colorado State, who sits 138th (dead last) in total defense and 138th (dead last) in scoring defense.

29 points against San Diego State, who sits 135th in total defense and 133rd in scoring defense.

Those are their four highest scoring games.

Their lowest three scoring games?

Against Texas (15th in total defense)? Seven points.

Against UTSA (104th in total defense)? 26 points.

Against Utah State (56th in total defense)? 20 points.

Just within statistical measures, the Bobcats only scored 20 and 7 points against top-100 teams.

Anyone outside the top 100? They scored 49, 63, 66, 29, and 26.

And where does Boise State lie in that mix? Currently, the Broncos are 62nd in total defense, and 38th in scoring defense.

If we’re just going off these statistics, I’d say Texas State is looking at 20-25 points. But let’s dive in a little deeper.

Where does Texas State shine? No doubt their offense is their breadbasket. Seldom will BSU face an opponent whose running game is statistically better than ours. However, the Bobcats are in that seldom category.

TXST sits 4th in the nation in rushing offense (Boise State is just behind in 7th). The Bobcats are 20th in passing efficiency (BSU 34th), 2nd in third-down-conversion percentage (BSU 13th), 9th in first-down-offense (BSU 30th), and they’re 5th in total yards per game at a massive 517.7 YPG (BSU 29th with 444.3 YPG).

In fact, there are eight different categories in which TXST is better than Boise State (statistically), the most by any opponent since Oregon.

Simply put, if the 66/63/49-point variety of the Bobcats show up, we could be in for a long night.

But the WAY bigger question is this: does the BSU defense outdo the sometimes heavy-hitting nature of the Bobcats’ offense? This game may deserve a more nuanced look than most. Let’s watch the following things closely on Saturday.

These are just five of the statistical categories that stand out as a “must watch” on Saturday. Obviously, all three phases of the game dictates the outcome, not just five statistically based categories. It does sound like the Broncos’ defense has put an emphasis on eye-control and getting heads on a swivel when the pass is in the air. Washington State threw a few passes that caused some level of concern for me, but overall, I thought our secondary looked decent. We’ll see if the positive trend continues against a team that, in my mind, will undoubtedly test our defensive backs.

There are many things that do fall in BSU’s favor, however. Just to give you a few – Boise State’s rushing offense ranks 7th in the nation, while TXST sits 39th in defense. The Broncos rank 30th in first down offense, while the Bobcats sit 105th in firstdown defense. This is a spot Boise State must exploit as much as possible.  On third downs, Boise State converts at a 51% clip (13th best in the country), while TXST stops third-downs at a 37% pace (63rd in the country).  And, when it comes to turnover margin, Boise State ranks 28th nationally (+0.57 per game). Texas State sits at 120th nationally, (-0.71 per game). Getting two to three extra possessions would be enormous for Boise State in a game where the other team has the ability to go off for 40 or more points.

Okay, so… a team coming in that’s never been on The Blue, in a new Pac 12 where BSU has been showing everyone they are the team to beat, and a night that many people will remember forever (yes, I’ll address it in just a minute).  After all the stats and numbers talk, let’s look at Three Big Things.

We know this is a theme this year, but this may be the first team that has the true ability to exploit this on a huge scale. With the run game TXST brings, it feels imperative that our DB’s are laser focused on discipline and glue-like coverage if they find themselves in one-on-one situations. Safeties and linebackers reacting to play-action is tough to control, but the importance of making sure they are helping when needed and tackling in open space may never have been as crucial this season as it will be this game. Heads turning at the right time has been off this season, and if they can do this and get hands up, let’s hope for a couple of picks on Saturday.

This is far easier said than done. In a season where BSU has been dominant in the Time-of-Possession category, this game is one they want to control the ball as much as possible. While BSU’s first-down-offense far out ranks TXST’s first-down-defense, it would be awesome to see BSU get those six-to-eight-minute drives going early, especially if they result in touchdowns. This would keep TXST’s high-scoring offense off the field, and we all know, rhythm can mean everything to a team like this. Getting some early three-and-outs, keeping the ball when we’re on offense, and not letting TXST wide receivers find consistent gaps that get them comfortable against our defense will all be crucial for a successful outing this weekend.

The Broncos rank 27th in sacks on the season, while TXST sits way back at 130th. This may be the real key to the game. If Boise State’s D-Line can pick up where they left off against Washington State, then the Bobcats will have a hard time finding success in either the passing or running game. BSU showed they can absolutely get into a backfield and stop the run and a mobile QB, but that was against a Coug team that struggles in that area. Can BSU impose that same will against a much better TXST team? I hope so.  If BSU’s O-Line can protect Maddog, get Dylan and Sire the two-to-three yard head start they’ve gotten throughout the first half of the season, BSU could see that 14 to 20 point victory once again.

Okay, now let’s talk about “the thing”.

The hype of this game will pretty much be unmatched in BSU history, except, the hype won’t be about the game itself. Emotions will be tremendously heightened due to the unveiling of the Kellen Moore statue, with Mr. Moore being at the ceremony and speakingat half time.

I honestly don’t have words that are adequate for this whole circumstance. I went to Boise State from 2004 to 2009. Kellen started in 2008 for the Broncos. I was in the middle of most student sections for his games, and rarely missed a single snap of any game. Kellen will, forever, hold a unique and special place in my sports-heart.

As a whole fan base, our love of the Broncos was already cemented, but the Kellen years? To say it took all of us to a new level would be the understatement of a lifetime.

The first Fiesta Bowl team gave us that glimpse of what was possible.

Kellen and his teams were the “what’s possible,” and I 100% believe Spencer Danielson and JD are pushing the next “what’s possible” envelope.

The Kellen years made us all dream of things we’d never thought of dreaming before as fans.

We beat teams we weren’t supposed to beat.

We won games that, not only did people say we couldn’t win, but we won them in a fashion that blew other fan bases’ minds.

The “Little Guy” moniker faded away. And what faded into reality next was everything we’re seeing unfold before our very eyes.

A Boise State entity that continues to be the standard bearer for all “little guy” hopes. The team that is counted out, time and time again. The community that other larger urban areas say, “How cute, they have a football team.”

Kellen took the ’06 Fiesta Bowl team fervor and said, “Hold my beer”.

Nobody in the sports world is more deserving of the honor of a statue than this man.

And, yet (sorry to be the downer here), we still must say: 1-0 Mentality. The team cannot afford to get caught up in the moment that’s happening outside of the game.

The hype, excitement and thrill of Saturday’s Kellen and Halloween festivities could only be equaled in heartache and devastation if the team doesn’t stay focused on beating Texas State and loses this game.

Let all the hype, Bronco Fam, be channeled into two things. First, appreciation for the greatest college QB to ever do it.

And second, make Texas State know what The Blue is all about. Loud, Loud, LOUD! Let them know that, sure, you may be from Texas where football is a religion.

But up here in Boise, we’re a nation.

A nation of fans that are insanely passionate about their team.

A fanbase that at 35,000+ is equal to anybody else’s 100,000+.

Once again, let ‘em know that when you come to Boise, you don’t just go against our players. You’re going to HEAR it from US, the blue-collar-mindset fans that show up and are relentless with our noise, our passion, our love for this team and this community.

Don’t let them leave with any thought other than not wanting to come back.

Period.

Be loud Saturday Bronco Fam. Let Kellen know just how much he’s appreciated. Then, turn that appreciation into noise and fervor for THIS team, this year, this iteration of our beloved Broncos. Because THIS team is also on the cusp of something special.

And how AWESOME that we’ve got Kellen in the house to witness it with us.

I appreciate you all Bronco Fam and love this community just as much now as I did 20 years ago when the “real fun” got underway.

Let’s go Broncos, get that dub this weekend!