You never want to dismiss a 669-yard performance at the division 1 football level. Anytime an offense can torch another’s defense for 64 points, 600+ yards, and have a player rack up 300 all-purpose yards, you’re doing something right, no doubt.

Colorado State came into last Saturday’s game sitting 138th out of 138 in scoring defense, team passing efficiency defense, total defense and rushing defense. Dead last in four different categories. They were also 137th in 3rd down conversion defense, 135th in first down defense…the list goes on.

However, the Broncos did what they needed to do. Score a TON of points against one of the worst defenses in college football. 

And it’s a good thing our offense did just that, because a decent Rams offense put up their own big numbers against a BSU defense struggling to find a way to stop teams from scoring.

This coming weekend, the Broncos face the daunting task of stopping (or, trying to slow down) an Oregon State Beaver team that finds itself on a two-game skid. While Oregon State kept the game within reach in the first half, Texas State’s offense took over in the 3rd and 4th quarters. The game finished 42-21, although it wasn’t that close in the 2nd half.

This Saturday’s game will mark the 12th all-time meeting between the two programs, with OSU holding a six to five advantage. (Boise State does lead the series at home, four to one.)

This Beaver team is an interesting study this week. Their last two games (which includes a 38-22 loss to Fresno State) bring up several questions. Fresno State ranks just 92nd in total defense, and Texas State 115th. To only score 22 and 21 points against defenses that are statistically worse than Boise State should be encouraging on the Bronco front.

Yet, why do I have a pit in my stomach for this game?

Analytically, I know it’s nuanced.

But as a BSU die-hard PRAYING for another CFP visit, I am trying to channel my inner Phil Jackson to Zen myself through this week. 

Pac 12 ‘Ship Host on the line? 

College Game Day coming? 

An OSU team that has a Heisman contending wide receiver? (Note – as of Wednesday afternoon, it was released that sophomore QB Braden Atkinson will miss this game).

*Calm thoughts…calm thoughts…calm thoughts*

Well, let’s dive into those nuances, shall we?

Alright, let’s start with the obvious thing that’s on everyone’s mind (well, maybe not so obvious with SO much happening this week). The defense.

To Chinander’s credit, in his words when asked if it’s more execution or scheme and play call, he said, “It doesn’t matter. It’s on me.” 

He also says they’re close. “One-hundred-thousand people that listen to this interview and says that guy says they’re five plays away and they’re not. Okay, that’s fine. But we are.”

Chins sounded very confident with how close the defense is, while still holding onto the “it’s on me” moniker. Which is exactly what we want from a coach. The analytics and deep diving in a coach’s world is far different than us as fans watching on TV or in the stadium, recognizing a problem and shouting/screaming/whispering, “They should have _______” or “Why didn’t they ________” or “Oh man, come on, that guy was _________”.

Easy to do that from our point of view.

But none of it’s “easy”.  Defensive schemes and plans are an extremely complicated matter. And when it comes down to it, when our defensive unit lines up and looks across the line at the offense they’re facing, they’re looking at guys who want to burn them just as much as our guys want to crush them. So I lean towards giving coaches the benefit of the doubt. I know that won’t be popular with everyone who reads this, that’s fine. We can analyze and be as critical as we want on the fan side of things. And that’s okay. It’s a piece of a large puzzle as fans that we get to be involved in and vocal about. 

But I’m also not privy to the extremely complicated nature of solving puzzles like Oregon State or Texas State. This season alone, the Broncos have solved eight out of nine puzzles, and their only loss is to an Oregon team that may not be as bad as early season results indicated. 

We all know there’s an issue. Even Chinander recognizes this. And if the “close” is cutting ten to twelve explosive plays down to five or six, that will also mean two to three more punts a game for the opposition.

Which means our offense gets two to three possessions off a non-scoring drive from the opponent. And if you give this offense two to three more chances in a game of ten to twelve possessions? 

I’ll take Boise State ALL DAY.

Do we dare touch the Maddux Madsen talk right now? Here’s what I’ll say. The dude is having the best season of his career. Not only that, let’s just look at a few areas in which he is nationally excelling in: EPA Per Play (18th), Passing Success Rate (28th), Sack Rate (18th), Completion Percentage (46th), and Rushing Success Rate (1st). He’s completing 66% of his passes (8% better than last season), and his Passing Efficiency Rating is sitting at 151.7, 32nd out of 121 college quarterbacks. And for a frame of reference, the oft-revered Braden Atkinson at Oregon State is only 11 spots better than Mad Dog. You know who is behind Maddux? Arch Manning (Texas), Kenny Michney (Kentucky), Dylan Riola (Oregon), and Bear Bachmeier (BYU) to name a few. There are dozens of other “Power 4” QB’s behind him on that list.

One other note. I’m not negating how effective Max Cutforth has been in the two games he’s appeared. The dude absolutely BALLED OUT.

Against Colorado State and Texas State (for seven minutes). And, two of the worst passing defenses in the nation.

I LOVE what Max did in both games. After these last two games, I’m slightly convinced we may be watching our next year’s starting quarterback in these moments. 

He (along with the O-Line, Rasean Jones, Cam Bates, Jaden Mickey and Boen Phelps, among others) saved the day against Texas State. We don’t have Gameday here, we aren’t sitting #24 in the CFP rankings, #17 in the AP Poll, if it wasn’t for the last seven minutes of brilliance from the offense against Texas State. Then, Max torched Colorado State’s defense, zero doubt.

And, some analysts, writers and fans will call for certain guys to start over other guys. 

But, that’s not what this is. Regardless of the starter or the backup, I’m supporting. There are absolutely places on the socials where you can get fans calling for jobs of QBs, coaches, AD’s and others. 

I’m all in on whoever the starter is. I recognize these coaches see the day-in and day-out of what these men put into this program. I keep hearing the term “eye-test” come up. Does that simply mean the stronger throwing arm? Does that mean accuracy? Does that mean a guy who is taller than the other? 

I got it. I can hear the “no, it’s the throws he’s making with “zip” on them” shouts. I can hear the “He’s making tighter passes and taking chances Maddux doesn’t” comments. 

However, the eye-test I’ve seen from Maddux gives me enough to say I’m all in on him still starting this year. And I don’t think any statistics I throw down in this article will change the minds of those who want Max at the helm for this coming game.

And again, that’s okay too. I’m also ALL IN on fans who love Boise State and want to support this team. 

So, with all of that said, what does this Oregon State game look like? Let’s look at our Three Big Things for this weekend’s game.

Three Big Things

Yep, we’re starting here again. There has got to be an answer for the explosives that continue to pile up. Through their nine games, Boise State has given up 26 plays of 30+ yards, 19 of 40+ yards, and 12 of 50+ yards. Week ten’s matchup against Colorado State saw 12 explosives alone against the defense. Not much else to say except to ask a question: does this stop this weekend? Braden Atkinson, the nation’s leader in passing yards, has been listed as “out” following a hand injury in last week’s game against Texas State. With that, does Jesse Legree produce like he’s been able to with backup Maalik Murphy taking over? Legree started the year seven straight games of 100+ yards. In the previous two games, he’s accumulated 77 yards and 99 yards, with average receptions of 10.0 and 12.4 yards per reception, well down from five of his games where he averaged 18 or more yards per reception. Is this an Oregon State team slowing down? Have defenses started to game plan better? Or, is this just the flow of a season and laws-of-averages bringing a guy back down to a smidge of reality? I’m really hoping Saturday’s defense shows up in the secondary, because with Atkinson out, Boise State’s defense has a chance to step up and show they can stop a backup QB who is still a great QB. On the other hand, if the Beaver offense gets in a rhythm, even with Murphy at QB…well, buckle up Bronco Nation. 

These kinds of weeks can go a few different directions, but I’m really hoping that the focus, the 1-0 mentality, and the drive to win THIS game is all set in stone come Saturday morning. As fans, we LOVE weeks where Gameday is involved, the CFP conversation has heated up tremendously and talk of hosting a Pac-12 Championship Game is floating around. But with ALL of that said, our guys MUST stay focused on the task at hand. And I have no doubt this coaching staff is doing everything it can to keep heads calm and collected, to keep players and staff focused, and to drive home one thing: WIN. This week, as all weeks are right now, is a must win. I’m really hoping all the outside noise isn’t affecting the mentality and focus of going 1-0 this weekend.

In a game against an offense as potent as the Beavers’, even with a backup QB coming in, you’re always looking for advantages. So where do those opportunities exist against a 5-4 Oregon State team? One, the run game. Oregon State sits 103rd in the nation in run defense, giving up over 170 yards per game. With Dylan Riley trucking along, and (hopefully) a Sire Gaines back in the mix, BSU is in a prime position to take advantage of an OSU team that struggles against the run game. This leads into the second thing, which is Team Tackles for Loss. Oregon State ranks 110th in Team Tackles for Loss, with only 39 on the year. BSU’s O-Line has truly been a massive reason for Madsen’s, Cutforth’s, Riley’s, and the run game’s success this year. And going against a team that struggles to get into other teams’ backfields is an opportunity for them to showcase what they can do again. Getting that initial push on the line to create those two to three yards of space for Dylan or Sire to get going is such an incredible advantage for our offense. That should happen again this Saturday. And three, third and fourth down conversion percent on defense. OSU has had trouble getting teams off the field all season on money downs, where they rank 113th and 107th on third and fourth down defense. The cruciality of keeping drives going to keep the Beavers offense off the field cannot be overstated this weekend, especially with Atkinson out. Let’s not let the Beavers get into any type of rhythm. With Time of Possession (BSU ranks 2nd in the nation) comes keeping the other offense off the field. As much as we’d love to see Dylan and Co. bust out for some 70+ yard run again, it may not be the worst thing to see some ten to twelve play drives that last seven to eight minutes. Keep wearing down the Oregon State defense, keep their offense cold and sitting on the bench, and let our offense do what they do best – pound the rock.

One other thing, and I am always careful to let this kind of stat give me any sort of hope. But, it is worth noting that Oregon State’s wins have come against opponents with a combined 9-27 record (excluding Montana State who is 8-1). Their losses have come against teams with a combined 25-11 record. Again, I caution us  in extrapolating too much from that info, but essentially, Oregon State wins against teams they’re “supposed” to beat, and they lose against better teams.

Bronco Fam, there is so much outside noise about this program right now. With all of the ESPN hoopla going on, the CFP conversation, the Heisman whispers, the hosting the Pac ’12 ‘Ship hopes, the QB “controversy”, all of it – we have got to make sure the quick-to-anger culture that we live in doesn’t pull us away from supporting the university. 

I saw a post this week bringing up this idea that the current “younger” Bronco generation of fans doesn’t know what it was like living the Kellen years. And another that reminded those that lived in the Kellen and Coach Pete years don’t know what it was like in the Nutt/Koeter/Hawkins years. And yet, another that brought up the Boise Junior College days.

To all the Bronco Nation fam that posts and interacts with and gives their 2-cents on this team: good. Please continue loving this team. Please continue supporting them. Be passionate. Be loud.

And be kind. 

I (and I’m assuming many of you) got SO caught up in nasty political debates over the last 10 to 12 years. I still have moments where it creeps in. 

But let’s not let all that garbage tear down this fan base. I see it in pockets, and it doesn’t need to be so vitriolic.  We’ve spent decades building it up to what it is. A fan base that travels as good as or BETTER THAN 99.9% of other fan bases. A fan base and a community that, when other people move here or visit here, they say, “I had no idea how amazing it was in Boise”. Yes, debate and argue and have at it on topics that are “controversial”. But please don’t let the nasty side of it all tear this incredible community apart.

Oregon State is on Saturday, and you know they’d love nothing more than to spoil this big party we’re all having this week. They, in fact, are still in the running for getting to the Pac 12 Championship game, and as a legacy program of the Pac 12, their fan base and their die-hards are praying that they can show us what’s up, that they can remind us who really “owns” the Pac 12. 

I, on the other hand, and DYING to see Boise State remind everyone that we ARE the premier G6 program, one that we still hope others doubt. One that we still know P4 programs think very little of. 

And one that I will be shouting at the top of my lungs for at Albertson’s Stadium on Saturday. 

Let’s go Bronco Fam, be elite. Be loud. Be passionate. Be kind. 

And BE the stadium that causes false starts this weekend against the Beavs.

You’ve got this Broncos, BEAT OSU!